Repack Breaks, the old way.......

How the sports card repack game got ruined. Greed, gambling, and lack of oversight.

For those that are brand new to this hobby or brand new to getting into breaks, or just brand new to repack breaks lets quickly go over how repacks typically work. That is, of course, before we came along and changed the game!

How it starts....

Joe from United Breaks is getting ready to purchase cards for their repacks. A repacks box contains a single card that is sourced from the secondary market and carefully hand-packed into a box (similar to those pictured above). Multiple boxes—typically 10, 20, 30, or more—are grouped together to form a "case". Understanding the concept of a case is essential, as they are intended to contain a fixed number of boxes. This time, United Breaks will create a 10-box case. Once this number is established, it cannot be altered; adding more boxes would distort the odds for all buyers. Typically, a ten-box case features one standout card, often referred to as the "ceiling" card or "case hit". This card is generally the most valuable within the case. The longer the case hit remains unsold and intact in the case, the easier it becomes for United Breaks to attract buyers for their breaks.

Freshly Made 10-Box Repack Case.

Here’s a breakdown of the card values in Joe's case. Only Joe, who assembled the case, knows the specific cards and their respective values. Most breakers typically provide a "minimum value," ensuring that no card from the case is valued lower than this amount. Additionally, some may include an average value, calculated by dividing the total value of all cards by the number of boxes in the case. Importantly, all will specify the "ceiling" value, representing the highest valued card packed within the case, often referred to as the "chase" card.
In this instance, Joe's case contains 10 cards. United Breaks might indicate, "This repack case has a ceiling value of $500, an average value of $100, and a floor value of $20." Joe invested $1,000 in total for the cards to create this case. To break even on his investment, he would need to charge more than $100 per box.

Almost ready, what should I charge?

We have our case and a clear understanding of our values; now it's time to determine our pricing. The expenses involved include the cost of boxes, shipping supplies, and labor for the stream operator. Additionally, we must account for platform fees that typically amount to 15%. Let's break down the costs: labor expenses are estimated at $250, which covers purchasing the cards, preparing the repacks, managing the stream, packaging the sold cards for shipping, and handling the shipping itself. Supplies amount to $100, while other overhead costs add another $200. In total, we need approximately $1,530 to break even, excluding fees. Joe has decided to price his boxes at $200 each, which reflects the average expected revenue from the breaks (details on this will be provided in the next section).

Time to run some breaks!

Now that Joe has meticulously crafted his first 10-box repack case and established his pricing, he's poised for success! United Breaks is ready to make its mark on the industry! Joe is eager to sell! Rather than selling the boxes individually, Joe plans to host several breaks, utilizing a divisional format with one box per break. Each box is priced at $200, divided across 8 divisions, making each division just $25! [Keep in mind that buyers aren't aware of the cards inside the boxes, nor do they know their values beyond a potential "ceiling" number. In some cases, they might not even know how many boxes are in a case. Their odds could be as low as 1 in 10 for the ceiling or as slim as 1 in 400 (Joe isn't obligated to disclose this information, and many breakers choose not to).] Once Joe sells all 8 divisions, he will open one box live on stream. The contents of that box will go to the buyer of the corresponding division. For instance, if a Jalen Hurts Optic Auto emerges from the box, the purchaser of the NFC East division will claim the card, while the others walk away empty-handed. At this point, Joe has successfully sold one box, leaving him with 9 more in the case. Time to move on to the next break!

Joe has a great day, and he is able to fill the last 9 breaks pretty easy. Joe sold the entire case of repacks in one stream!

10 boxes at $200 each is $2000 in gross sales. 15% fees are another $300 so the net sales after fees is $1700. The cost to run the breaks and sell every box (which he filled) is $1830 and let's say this took 10 hours. Net profit is $170 over 10 hours.

Recap of an honestly run, 10-box hand made $200 repack divisional break.

The potential earnings might seem modest, especially considering we set Joe and United up with a best-case scenario. If everything unfolds perfectly, they stand to make $170. But what happens if the "ceiling" card is drawn from the very first box sold? Suddenly, with only 9 boxes left, the entire case's appeal diminishes as everyone knows the coveted $500 card has already been claimed. Who would be interested in buying into the next break? Sure, there might still be a $200 card, the case's second most valuable one, but even if we manage to fill another single-box break, wouldn’t you know it? That card gets hit too!

Now, it's clear: selling additional spots is going to be a challenge.

Joe has a passion for sports cards and dreams of turning this love into his career. Surely, there's a way to boost profitability. There must be something he can do to enhance his earnings.

When you break it down, earning $170 for at least 10 hours of work means he's making just $17 an hour. I think we can all agree that you could earn more flipping burgers at Burger King. It doesn’t sound very appealing, does it? Yet, Joe witnesses other breakers go from operating in their parents' basement to acquiring massive 400,000 sq. ft. warehouses to stream around the clock, seven days a week. Surely, there must be a method Joe can adopt to find similar success?

Wait a minute—Joe has some ideas! A handful of strategies that could turn things around and make his endeavors far more profitable.

The ugly side of repack breakers-

It happens every day, it's likely happening right now.

Sellers make and break their own Repack Cases.

The Insider information list-

The immoral, reprehensible, and dirty things sellers do with their repack insider information just to make a few extra dollars.

Sellers know the values of each card in the case.
Sellers know which boxes contain the more valuable cards.
Sellers know what teams are most valuable to buy.
Sellers choose what boxes are going to be used in what breaks.
Sellers know condition of raw cards in their repacks and DO NOT ever disclose damage.
If all that wasn't enough, sellers know when items buying formats change(set prices to auction, price reductions).

When sellers are the only ones that know the values of the individual cards within a given case, they can choose to end the stream whenever they choose. (i.e. first half of the case sells and all of the low value cards get hit and only the high value cards remain, it is in the seller's interest to end the stream and "come back tomorrow to finish the case" but tomorrow has different, less valuable cards in the case from yesterday.
When sellers know which boxes have the highest value cards, they can be sure to run the first half of the case breaks to manipulate the boxes that are used so low value hits come out first and high value hits are saved until the end of the case.
When the 10-box repack case is on screen stacked 10 high and the seller knows the case hit is in box three from the bottom they can and do have friends/employees in streams buying the case hit team and choosing the case hit box when they plan it.
Sellers often times get their friends/employees to pose as random customers so they can hit the high value cards and they don't have to be shipped out. They can be resold.
Sellers very often change buying formats from fixed price to auctions when the case is getting low and the "case hit" is still live. They know they can charge more because the odds are improving.
Sellers hide poor condition raw cards in repack breaks because they can buy them for a discount and claim they are full price. Artificially inflating the overall value of a repack case to squeeze extra money out.
Lastly, the shill bidding is out of control. Companies have staff in the stream at all times to bid on auction style formats to ensure they get their price or over their price.

Lobby for the hobby!